Technical Analysis VIII: Price Channels

A trending market can move between parallel support and resistance levels. A price channel between two parallel lines can often be drawn in a trending market. The key to a price channel is that the lines be parallel to each other. The value of the price channel in predicting the ongoing speed of a trend depends on the lines being parallel.

Unlike trend lines, which can be drawn on any chart with two relative lows or highs, price channels should not be forced on a chart where they are not quickly apparent. Once a trend line is established, create a duplicate parallel line on the chart. Then move it up to the relative highs above or down to the relative lows below the trend line. If two or more fit with the line, there may be a valid price channel. Otherwise, the market may simply be too volatile - even in the midst of a strong trend - to plot a channel.

In the above example the (support) trend line itself is valid, but creating a parallel line on the opposite side of the prices does not add any value to the chart and is not warranted by the data. Placing a support or resistance line where it does not belong will simply provide you with false signals to buy or sell.

Technical Analysis I: Introduction

There are two major approaches to analyzing the currency market, fundamental analysis and technical analysis. The fundamental analysis focuses on the underlying causes of price movements, such as the economic, social, and political forces that drive supply and demand. The technical analysis focuses on the studies of the price movements themselves. Technical analysts use historical data to forecast the direction of future prices.

The premise of technical analysis is that all current market information is already reflected in the price movement. By studying historical price movements, investors can make informed trading decisions. The following articles aim to give a thorough presentation of technical analysis tools and theories.

The primary tools of technical analysis are the charts. The articles first introduced common kinds of charts available on charting software. Charts are also used to identify trending and ranging markets. The articles continued on how to identify support and resistance price, trend lines and price channels. Next, it presented simple trading strategies in trending and ranging markets.

Through careful observation, technical analysts have found recurring patterns on the charts that can give us indication about future price movements. The articles introduced the important patterns, such as the trend reversal and trend continuation patterns. In addition, the Japanese Candle Stick has its own implications in terms of patterns, the articles then introduced how to read the Japanese Candle stick and the inference of its patterns.

Technical indicators are mathematical calculations based on historical prices, they are used extensively in technical analysis to predict changes in trends or price patterns. The final part of the technical analysis is a serious of articles introducing two major types of indicators: trend following indicators and oscillators.

Basic Concepts VII: Margin

What is Margin?

Margin is the amount of equity that must be maintained in a trading account to keep a position open. It acts as a good faith deposit by the trader to ensure against trading losses. A margin account allows customers to open positions with higher value than the amount of funds they have deposited in their account.

Trading a margin account is also described as trading on a leveraged basis. Most online forex firms offer up to 200 times leverage on a mini contract account. The mini contract size is usually 10,000 currency unit, 1/200th of 10,000 equals to 50 currency unit, meaning only 0.5% margin is required for open positions. Compare to future contracts, which require 10% margin for most contracts, and equities require 50% margin to the average investor and 10% margin to the professional equity traders, foreign exchange market offers the highest leverage among the other trading instruments.

The equity in excess of the margin requirement in a trading account acts as a cushion for the trader. If the trader loses on a position to the point that equity is below the minimum margin requirement, meaning the cushion has completely worn out, then a margin call will result. Generally, in online forex trading, the trader must deposit more funds before the margin call or the position will be closed. Since no calls are issued before the liquidation, the margin call is better known as ‘margin out' in this case. The account will be margined out, meaning all the positions will be closed, once the equity falls below the margin requirement.

Example:

Account	A
Account Equity	500USD
Contract Size	10,000
Currency	EUR/USD
Spread	3 pips
Margin Requirement	50USD
Leverage	1,000:50 = 200:1
Pips to margin out (1 lot)	447

Consider Account A, the margin requirement for 1 lot of position is 50USD. The free usable margin is Account Equity - (Margin Requirement + Spread) = 500 - (50 + 3) = 447. The account will be margined out if EUR/USD moves 447 pips against the position.

Why Margin Requirement Matters?

Leverage is a double-edged sword. With proper usage, it can enhance customers' funds to generate quick returns and increase the potential return of an investment. However, without proper risk management, it can lead to quick and large losses. Consider the following example:

Account	A	B
Account Equity	500USD	500USD
Contract Size	10,000	10,000
Currency	EUR/USD	EUR/USD
Spread	3 pips	3 pips
Margin Requirement	50USD	200USD
Leverage	1,000:50 = 200:1	1,000:200 = 50:1
Pips to margin out (1 lot)	447	297
Max no. of lots at one time	9	2
Pips to margin out (max lots)	3	47

The initial conditions of the accounts are the same, except for account A, the margin requirement per lot is 50USD and account B is 200USD.

Free usable margin = Account Equity - (Margin Requirement + Spread)*no. of lots

Maximum number of lots open at one time = Account Equity / (margin requirement + spread)

In account A, for 1 lot of position, the free usable margin is 500 - (50+3) = 447, which means the account will be margined out if EUR/USD moves 447 pips against the position. The max number of lots open at one time = (500/(50+3)) = 9 lots, with 500 - (50+3)*9 = 23USD free usable margin left for 9 lots. Once EUR/USD moves 23/9 = 3 pips against the positions, there would be not enough usable margin and account A will be margined out.

In account B, the free usable margin for 1 lot is 500 - (200+3) = 297, which means the account will be margined out if EUR/USD moves 297 pips against the position. The max number of lots open at one time = (500/(200+3)) =2 lots, with 500 - (200+3)*2 = 94USD free usable margin for 2 lots. If EUR/USD moves 94/2 = 47 pips against the positions, account B would be margined out.

With 1 lot of open position, account A has 447USD usable margin as cushion before being margined out, while account B only as 297USD. However, with more usable margin, account A has higher probability of being over traded. As shown in the above example, the more open positions, the easier is the account to get margin out.

Most forex trading firms offer customizable leverage; traders can choose the leverage ratio they feel most comfortable with. Customers should be aware of how to guard against over trading an account and managing overall risk.

Basic Concepts VI: Types of Orders

The forex market provides different kinds of orders for trading. The following are some major types of orders that can be found on forex trading stations.

Market orders - A buy or sell order in which the forex firm is to execute the order at the best available current price. It is also called at the market.

Entry orders - A request from a client to a forex firm to buy or sell a specified amount of a particular currency pair at a specific price. The order will be filled once the requested price is hit.

Stop Loss orders - An order placed to close a position when it reaches a specified price. It is designed to limit a trader's loss on a position. If the position is opened with buying a currency pair, the stop loss order would be a request to sell the position when the price fall to the specified level. And vice versa. Traders are strongly recommended to use stop loss orders to limit their losses. It is also important to use stop loss orders when investors may enter a situation where they are unable to monitor their portfolio for an extended period.

Take Profit Orders - An order placed to close a position when it reaches a predetermined profit exit price. It is designed to lock in a position's profit. Once the price surpasses the predefined profit-taking price, the take profit order becomes market order and closes the position.

Good Until Cancelled (GTC) - In online forex trading, most of the orders are GTC, meaning an order will be valid until it is cancelled, regardless of the trading session. The trader must specify that they wish a GTC order to be cancelled before it expires. Generally, the entry orders, stop loss orders and take profit orders in online forex trading are all GTC orders.

The above are the basic orders types available in most of them trading systems. Some trading systems may offer more sophisticated orders. Traders should be familiar with the different orders and make the most of them during trading.

Basic Concepts V: Spreads

What is a spread?

In margin forex trading, there are two prices for each currency pair, a "bid" (or sell) price and an "ask" (or buy) price. The bid price is the rate at which traders can sell to the executing firm, while the ask price is the rate at which traders can buy from the executing firm.

Bid/Ask

For example, when you see the price quote of EUR/USD is 1.2881/1.2884 as in the above picture, the bid is 1.2881 whereas the ask is 1.2884. That means traders looking to sell must do so at 1.2881, those looking to buy must do so at 1.2884.

The difference between the bid and ask price is the spread, which constitutes the cost of the trade. In fact, all traded instruments - stocks, futures, currencies, bonds, etc. - have spread. If a trader buys at 1.2884 and then sells immediately, there is a 3-point loss incurred. The trader will need to wait for the market to move 3 points in favour of his/her position in order to break even. If the market moves 4 points in your favour, he/she starts to profit.

Many online trading firms like to promote margin forex trading as an almost cost-free instrument - commission free, no service charge, no hidden cost, etc. Traders should know that spread is the cost of trading, and in fact, it also represents the main source of revenue for the market maker, i.e. the forex trading company. The spread may appear to be a minuscule expense, but once you add up the cost of all of the trades, you will find it can eat away quite a portion of your account or your profit. If you check the price tag of a T-shirt before you buy it, do the same thing when you trade forex, look into the spread before you decide to trade. Your trade needs to surmount the spread (the cost) before it profits.

Know your expense: the spread

Spread is the cost to a trader. On the other hand, it is a revenue source of the firm who executes the trade. In the foreign exchange market, the spread can vary a lot depending on the executing firm and the parties involve. Inter-bank foreign exchange can have spread as tight as 1-2 pips, while the bank can widen the spread to 30-40 pips when dealing with individual customers. If you check out the spread of those small exchange shops nearby the tourists' sights, you may find the spread can go up to 400 to 600 pips.

Thanks to keen market competition, the spread of online forex trading is getting tighter in the past few years. For major online forex companies, their spreads are essentially the same. The table shows the typical spread of four major currencies of online forex trading at the time being:

Currency pairs	Spread
EUR/USD	2-3 pips
USD/JPY	3-4 pips
USD/CHF	5 pips
GBP/USD	5 pips

It is important for a trader to find the tightest spread as possible, but anything that is far lower than the typical spread is skeptical. The spread is the main source of revenue of a forex trading firm, if the firm cannot earn enough from the spread, there maybe some other hidden cost in the transaction.

Another point to note is that many market makers often widen the spread when market conditions become more volatile, thus increasing the cost of trading. For instance, if an economic number comes out that is off expectations, thereby creating a flood of buyers or sellers, the market maker may often widen the spread to restore the balance between buyers and sellers. As a result, traders should inquire about the execution practices of their clearing firm; firms with poor execution of orders and a tendency to widen spreads will ultimately result in higher trading costs for the end user.

Basic Concepts III: History and Recent Trend of Online FX Market

The recently technology advancement has broken down the barriers that used to stand between retail clients of FX market and the inter-bank market. The online forex trading revolution was originated in the late 90's, which opened its doors to retail clients by connecting the market makers to the end users. With the high-speed Internet access and powerful central processing unit, the online trading platform at home user's personal computer now serves as a gateway to the liquid FX market. Retail clients can now trade together with the biggest banks in the world, with similar pricing and execution. What used to be a game dominated and controlled by major inter-banks is becoming a common field where individuals can take the same opportunities as big banks do.

Technology breakthroughs not only changed the accessibility of the FX market, they also changed the way of how trading decisions were made. Research showed that, as opposed to unable to find profitable trading methodologies, the primary reason for failure as a speculator is a lack of discipline devoted to successful trading and risk management. The development of iron discipline is among the most challenging endeavors to which a trader can aspire. With the help of modern trading or charting softwares, traders can now develop trading systems that are comprehensive, with detailed trading plans including rules of entry, exit, and risk management model. Furthermore, traders can do backtesting and forward testing of a particular strategy on a demo account before commitment of capital.

When the system trading softwares were first introduced into the store of trading tools, traders would need programming skills and a strong background in mathematical technical analysis. With the effort of system trading software companies making their products more adaptable to mass market, the system trading softwares are now more user-friendly and simpler to use. At this point, non-programmers with basic understanding of mathematical technical analysis can enjoy the amusement of system trading.

While system trading might not provide the 'holy grails' of trading, it offers as prototypes or guidelines for beginners to starting trading with sound mathematical model and risk management. Over time, traders can develop trading systems that match their individual personality.

Nature of the Foreign Exchange Market

Basic Concepts II: Nature of the Foreign Exchange Market

The Foreign Exchange Market is an over-the-counter (OTC) market, which means that there is no central exchange and clearing house where orders are matched. With different levels of access, currencies are traded in different market makers:

The Inter-bank Market - Large commercial banks trade with each other through the Electronic Brokerage System (EBS). Banks will make their quotes available in this market only to those banks with which they trade. This market is not directly accessible to retail traders.

The Online Market Maker - Retail traders can access the FX market through online market makers that trade primarily out of the US and the UK. These market makers typically have a relationship with several banks on EBS; the larger the trading volume of the market maker, the more relationships it likely has.

Market Hours

Forex is a market that trades actively as long as there are banks open in one of the major financial centers of the world. This is effectively from the beginning of Monday morning in Tokyo until the afternoon of Friday in New York. In terms of GMT, the trading week occurs from Sunday night until Friday night, or roughly 5 days, 24 hours per day.

Price Reporting Trading Volume

Unlike many other markets, there is no consolidated tape in Forex, and trading prices and volume are not reported. It is, indeed, possible for trades to occur simultaneously at different prices between different parties in the market. Good pricing through a market maker depends on that market maker being closely tied to the larger market. Pricing is usually relatively close between market makers, however, and the main difference between Forex and other markets is that there is no data on the volume that has been traded in any given time frame or at any given price. Open interest and even volume on currency futures can be used as a proxy, but they are by no means perfect.

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